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2024-12-13 05:42:09
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Look at the data first. The number of individual stocks in the two cities rose by 2,040, while the number of individual stocks fell by 3,216. Today, it is obvious that the index is stable, but individual stocks began to make up for the decline. There was mainly a style switch between the small ticket and the big ticket in the session, but unfortunately the market didn't buy it, and even triggered a sharp dive before noon. Combined with the positive after-hours meeting, the worst thing today is the wave of people who cut meat in the plate.Second, open higher and go lower tomorrow, and continue to shake and digest and deviate from the structure without breaking through the 3489.79 point. As long as the MACD indicator shows a dead fork again, the former peak value (128.62) is not referential, and the second peak value is 96.575 points. Relatively speaking, if it breaks through 3489.79 points later, the disappearance of deviation should be a high probability event.To sum up, the top management doesn't want to go crazy here, but wants to go slow, so if the 100-point high opening is staged again tomorrow, they should be careful and focus on the closing price. As long as it is lower than 3489.79 points, there is basically no need to worry about structural risks. On the contrary, if it is higher than 3489.79 points, we should pay attention to the structural pressure later, and there is a great risk of structural adjustment.


Emotionally, there are 104 stocks with daily limit, 24 stocks with daily limit and 320 stocks with a drop of more than 5%. The data shows that the relay mood has ebbed, but it still maintains a daily limit of 100 shares. It is only the punishment for manipulating the stock price over the weekend that obviously scares the hot money. This point was suggested in yesterday's article. Friends who relay short-term should be careful.Second, open higher and go lower tomorrow, and continue to shake and digest and deviate from the structure without breaking through the 3489.79 point. As long as the MACD indicator shows a dead fork again, the former peak value (128.62) is not referential, and the second peak value is 96.575 points. Relatively speaking, if it breaks through 3489.79 points later, the disappearance of deviation should be a high probability event.Because the technical side still faces the same problem on November 8, that is, once the closing price is higher than 3489.78, it will face the technical suppression of daily deviation. Therefore, we should make two preparations: First, we should accelerate directly and digest the technical deviation here. However, this process may be very long. After all, the index has not fallen much, but the MACD indicator is far from the peak, which is difficult to digest easily.


In terms of the performance of individual stocks and sectors, there are two main reasons for today's surge: First, the CPI data is less than expected, and the weak economic recovery has not changed; Second, the mysterious funds have rested again, only to protect the footwall when they fell sharply in the afternoon. Fortunately, the market shrinkage consolidation has not changed the short-term upward trend. Combined with the after-hours positive+Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures index, there is basically no suspense for the market to open higher tomorrow.Returning to the disk, today's market polarization is actually that hot money and institutional funds are competing for dominance, but hot money is beginning to cut high and low, and domestic institutions have a net outflow of 69 billion. After the introduction of the conference, institutions are very embarrassed. There is a high probability that the style switching trip in November will continue, but this position is definitely not suitable for direct acceleration.I won't say much here. The key is to talk about the response after the market opens higher tomorrow, which is very important. Today's intraday rally, whether it is washing dishes or domestic institutions are really not optimistic about the recovery expectations, is a thing of the past. At least the positive after-hours is enough to hedge the negative data, and the moderately loose adjustment of the currency indicates that the water release turn is really coming.

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